goodenomics™

The evidence

The framing effect: lives saved or lives lost

Two plans for six hundred people in danger. Describe them by the lives they save, and most people pick the sure thing. Describe the very same plans by the deaths they cause, and most people gamble. Nothing changed but the words.

A scene from The Junction, the journey where the game asks this question.
A scene from the game, as it is drawn: one handwritten line at a time.

Framing effect: the gain frame

The same choice feels different depending on whether outcomes are described as lives saved or lives lost. Described as gains, people prefer the sure thing.

What the study found

In 1981, 72% of 152 students chose the sure programme (200 saved) over the gamble (a one-third chance all 600 are saved) when outcomes were described as lives saved. 78% of 155 other students chose the gamble when the same programmes were described as deaths.

Source: Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science 211(4481), 453-458. doi.org/10.1126/science.7455683

Framing effect: the loss frame

The same choice described as deaths rather than lives saved pushes people towards the gamble, because a sure loss feels worse than a risky one.

What the study found

In 1981, 78% of 155 students chose the gamble (a one-third chance nobody dies, a two-thirds chance all 600 die) over the sure option (400 die). 72% of 152 others chose the sure option when the identical programmes were described as lives saved.

Source: Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science 211(4481), 453-458. doi.org/10.1126/science.7455683

How to read this

These are the answers of particular people, asked in a particular way, at a particular time. A share of people is not a verdict: it tells you what they answered, not what is right.

Where the game asks it

The Junction (Whom would you sacrifice?), The Hospital (What risks will you accept?). The game’s versions with family, age, consent and combined pressures are new comparisons written for it. They are not copies of the experiments, and no population percentages are claimed for them.

Play The Junction Free. No account. Your place is saved on your device.

More evidence