The evidence
Anchoring: the number you saw first
Before you make an estimate, someone shows you a number that has nothing to do with it. It should make no difference.
Anchoring
A number you have just seen pulls your estimate towards it, even when you know the number is meaningless.
What the study found
In 1974, people first said whether the share of African countries in the UN was higher or lower than a number from a spun wheel. Their median estimate was 25% when the wheel showed 10 and 45% when it showed 65.
Source: Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science 185(4157), 1124-1131. doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
How to read this
These are the answers of particular people, asked in a particular way, at a particular time. A share of people is not a verdict: it tells you what they answered, not what is right.
Where the game asks it
The Review (What would change your mind?). The game’s versions with family, age, consent and combined pressures are new comparisons written for it. They are not copies of the experiments, and no population percentages are claimed for them.
Play The Review Free. No account. Your place is saved on your device.
More evidence
- The trolley problem: what people actually answer
- The framing effect: lives saved or lives lost
- The identifiable victim effect: one voice against many
- In-group favouritism: your people first
- The ultimatum game: would you refuse an unfair offer?
- The dictator game: what people give when nobody can refuse
- Third-party punishment: paying to punish a stranger
- Omission bias: the harm you cause and the harm you allow
- Obedience to authority: the Milgram experiments
- Conformity: when everyone else gives the wrong answer
- Base-rate neglect: what a positive test really means
- The sunk cost effect: finishing what should be stopped
- The default effect: when doing nothing is the choice